Type I & Type II Errors
Contents
Lecture 4 introduced Type I and Type II errors.
Type | Prediction | Reality |
---|---|---|
False positive (one) | Y | N |
False negative (two) | N | Y |
Type 1 errors are known as false positives, and occur when an outcome is incorrectly predicted as being true, when in reality it is false.
Type 2 errors are known as false negatives, and occur when an outcome is incorrectly predicted as being false, when in reality it is true.
Why?
Why do these errors exist?
I guess these issues are inevitable.
When we assume the outcome of a situation, it is what it is, an assumption.
When we favour an outcome over another, it is because we have a greater belief in the possibility of that outcome. A possibility.
Which?
If we had to live with one of these errors, which would you prefer?
It’s a hard question to answer, and it depends on the situation of the event.
Would you rather have false hope in something amazing, or to experience a nightmare, but wake up realising that everything is all good.
Probably you would rather experience the second outcome - but it isn’t always the case.